YEAR 01
Find consistency.
The first question was whether I could win consistently with the model.
REPORTED START$1,600
REPORTED FINISH$7,500
The original account also recorded a $4,000 loss on two out-of-model games in the final week.
ABOUT THE MONEYLINE MATRIX
The numbers matter.
So does the judgment.
A personal college basketball project.
Three questions that shaped the approach.
THE EARLY QUESTIONS
- 01THE FIRST TESTCan I win
consistently? - 02THE NEXT TESTCan I repeat
the results? - 03THE BIGGER TESTCan I scale
the model?
COLLEGE BASKETBALLMONEYLINES
01
WHERE IT STARTED
Heavy favorites.
Harder questions.
I set out to build a data model that would help me bet heavy favorites on the moneyline while being more selective about upset risk.
The early version was called Moneyline Monster. In the original About notes, I described three years of testing the idea: first for consistency, then for repeatability, and finally with bigger dollar amounts.
Those notes recorded encouraging results alongside setbacks. The lessons came from both.
FROM THE ORIGINAL ACCOUNT
Three seasons.
Three different tests.
These are the balances I reported in the original About page. They tell the early story; a complete historical ticket ledger has not been supplied.
YEAR 02
Repeat the process.
The next question was whether the results could be repeated in another season.
REPORTED START$2,600
REPORTED FINISH$8,600
A separate college football experiment had brought losses. The basketball approach did not transfer as I had hoped.
YEAR 03
Test the scale.
The third question was how the model would hold up with bigger dollar amounts.
REPORTED START$9,000
REPORTED FINISH$11,500
Scaling brought setbacks. The original notes described this as the most difficult of those three years.
HISTORICAL FIGURES · SELF-REPORTED
These early balances are Rob’s original recollections and have not been independently verified or reconciled for deposits, withdrawals and other account movements. The original account does not identify specific calendar years. See the current tracked ledger ↗
02
THE LESSONS THAT STAYED
Experience belongs
in the model, too.
Respect the boundaries.
The first year’s out-of-model losses made the cost of stepping outside the approach part of the story.
Keep the sport in view.
Football and hockey experiments were reminders that this was a college basketball project.
Give setbacks a place.
The original account included losses and a difficult scaling year alongside the stronger results. A useful record needs room for the whole experience.
THE PROJECT TODAY
Follow the work.
The Short List brings together published college basketball games of interest. Rob’s Results follows my documented personal wagers, with the game groups, individual tickets and calculation definitions visible.
Adapted from Rob’s original Moneyline Monster About account. Historical recollections and the current tracked ledger are presented separately.